Current Topics

China's Long March Toward Freer Markets

Topic: Emerging Markets, 9/16/2016

China’s economic miracle—its 30-plus year path of rapid advance and development to become the world’s second-largest economy—is often seen as uniquely Chinese, an isolated case of policymakers luckily pulling all the right levers to conjure growth. To us, though, a longer perspective shows China’s miracle bears broad similarities to Taiwan’s, Korea’s and Japan’s (with some admittedly Chinese characteristics). We believe a look at how China’s “miracle” resembles those before it—and at some key differences—can add valuable perspective on its present situation and the likely path forward.

FI on False Fears

Topic: Emerging Markets, 3/28/2016

An in-depth analysis that debunks prevailing fears around China’s Debt & GDP growth, US oil industry debt, and the Fed’s balance sheet.

EM Corporate Debt

Topic: Emerging Markets, 2/18/2016

A summarized analysis that puts EM corporate debt into perspective and reveals the portion denominated in USD.

How Real is China's GDP?

Topic: Emerging Markets, 10/23/2015

Chinese GDP beat expectations in Q3, growing 6.9% y/y--the country's lowest growth rate since 2009. While this figure exceeded the financial media's expectations, it also spawned questions regarding its accuracy, and the reliability of Chinese data in general.

China's Devaluation of the Yuan

Topic: Emerging Markets, 8/12/2015

The Chinese government announced on August 11th that it raised the daily "fixing" on the yuan (renmimbi) relative to the dollar to Rmb 6.23, effectively depreciating the currency by 1.9%. The fixing was raised another 1.6% in August 12th. Headlines decried the action as the largest daily move on record, but that is a byproduct of the managed nature of the yuan--other major currencies can and do move 2% in a single day. Speculation of the motivation behind the move ranged from stimulus prompted by weak trade and credit data to political wrangling with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for inclusion as a Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency.