Q2 2022 Global Markets Review & Outlook

Inside, you will find a summary of market activity and our market outlook.

Equities’ rocky, fear-filled first half intensified in Q2, with global developed markets approaching a -20% decline in May and piercing that threshold in mid-June. From a technical standpoint, history will recall this as a bear market, although we don’t think that a backward-looking label has much forward-looking significance. The difference between a steep correction and a shallow bear market is not meaningful as both usually precede strong rebounds.

  • Continued Negative Volatility is Not a Foregone Conclusion: Global markets have likely priced in well-known fears including a mild recession, which is far from certain, in our view. Meanwhile, positive economic factors are largely ignored.
  • Investor Sentiment Supports an Unexpected Recovery: Depressed sentiment, driven by concerns on inflation, global monetary policy, China’s lockdowns and a variety of other factors has significantly lowered investor expectations, increasing the likelihood that markets see a better-than-expected outcome.
  • Global Markets Typically Reward US Political Gridlock: The incumbent party routinely loses power during the midterm year, reducing political uncertainty and the likelihood of extreme legislation. Increased gridlock likely acts as a tailwind for global markets in the back half of the year.
*The foregoing information constitutes the views of Fisher Investments based on information believed to be reliable. There can be no assurances that Fisher Investments will continue to hold these views. These views may change at any time based on new information, analysis, or reconsideration.

Investing in stock markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any capital invested will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance.


About Fisher Investments Europe

Fisher Investments Europe was established in London, England in 2000. Fisher Investments Europe offers the portfolio management services of its parent company, Fisher Investments, an independent money management firm in the US founded in 1979 by investment guru Ken Fisher. Today, Fisher Investments and its affiliates oversee more than £150 billion* in assets for over 100,000 private clients and 150 institutional clients globally.* Founder Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 to 2017, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 31/03/2022)