Q1 2021 Global Markets Review & Outlook

Global markets extended their climb in Q1, rising 4.6%. Value equities led growth with Tech and Tech-like equities lagging, however we believe this to be a temporary countertrend. We are monitoring this carefully with the understanding that style volatility is normal. Crucially, our outlook hasn’t changed. We still think equities should have a good year, with growth regaining its leadership as markets climb alongside sentiment.

  • Expect an Above-Average Year for Global Equities: We anticipate a strong year for global markets tied to equities’ resilience, political clarity and continued vaccine development and distribution.
  • We Believe We are Late in the Market Cycle: The 2020 downturn behaved more like an outsized correction than a traditional bear so the market cycle did not reset. The vast majority of our sentiment and market indicators point to this being a late cycle bull market, yet many forecasters expect early-cycle leadership.
  • Investor Sentiment is Elevated but not Euphoric and can Remain High for a Long Time: Positive sentiment can reign for a while before equities reach a euphoric peak, with strong returns along the way. Monitoring sentiment will be key for investors in 2021.