Massive stimulus packages have investors’ fearing an uptick in inflation and its effect on equity markets. In this paper, we explore the historical effects of fiscal stimulus on GDP growth and make the argument that any inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the initial pent-up demand fades and companies return to full capacity following recessionary cutbacks during the pandemic.
In May’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Tom Kirby discusses recent equity supply trends, how Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) fit into this big picture, and recent developments in the SPAC market.
Investors may largely overlook the wide market cap range of US equities. Thus, they may be missing alpha opportunity when they fail to grow large enough as size leadership trade often.
Rising sentiment is likely to be a key driver of returns in what we expect to be a strong year for global equities led by bigger, high-quality growth names.
In April’s Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses China’s economic recovery, fears of potential policy tightening, recent regulatory concerns and our positive outlook for global and Chinese equities.
In this Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Analyst Nurul Bachik discusses the challenges investors may face when quantifying carbon emissions and suggests a more comprehensive approach to carbon management.
In this month’s edition of Macro Minutes, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Dan Mathews discusses Fisher Investments’ views on global growth and value stocks for the year ahead. Our current preference for growth stems from our most differentiated viewpoint: markets are in the late stages of a long cycle.
Continued economic improvement, a stable global political environment and warming investor sentiment are all supportive for equities in 2021.
In January’s Macro Minutes video, Davis Hein explains how we use one particular aspect of sentiment – other professional’s forecasts – to create a sentiment bell curve which proves useful as we create our own equity market forecasts for 2021.
In November’s short Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Brent Hankins discusses what today’s environment means for inflation and the US dollar. He covers current inflation expectations, why a rapid rise in inflation is unlikely, and the sentiment driven movement of the US dollar this year.
High-quality growth companies should continue to lead, but investors should be vigilant for changing economic and market conditions that could lead to a leadership shift.
In this 5-minute Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Jarred Kriz explains how Fisher Investments thinks objectively about politics to analyze the potential impact on markets and portfolios.
In this webinar, Senior Vice President of Research, Aaron Anderson covers the upcoming US presidential election and potential impacts on equity markets. He discusses how the COVID-19 crisis may influence the election, as well as how a Trump or Biden victory may impact markets. The importance of the political cycle, the leaders who are elected and the economic thinking they subscribe to may be important for how different sectors of the US economy can be expected to perform.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of our ESG capabilities and projects. 2020 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched a Diversity & Inclusion roadmap, refined our methodology for understanding positive portfolio impact, and continued pushing data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.
In September’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Charles Dornbush explains how Health Care’s defensive nature largely explains its performance this year. He also provides an update on the progress towards an effective COVID-19 vaccine and how the Health Care sector may be impacted by the upcoming US presidential election.
In this edition of the Macro Minutes video series, ESG Program Manager Zoe Abbott Boyd addresses how the scale of a company’s positive environmental activities matters. Big tech firms and large oil companies are improving their environmental impact by supporting energy efficiency and alternative energy.
The UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) awarded Fisher Investments with the highest score of an A+ for our Strategy & Governance and Incorporation modules, as well as an A for our Active Ownership module.
ESG Insights is a one-stop shop for all of our key ESG research findings. The latest ESG Insights includes ESG implications of COVID-19, global ESG trends, renewable energy opportunities, and limitations of ESG scores.
We believe large growth remains in a favorable position, almost as if the bull market never really ended, and the March drawdown instead behaved more like a severe correction.
We believe the equity rally since late March marks the start of a new bull market. However, the market drop and recovery have so far acted more like a massive correction than traditional bear and bull markets, without a lasting style shift.
In this video, we highlight the strength of ESG demand, key emerging engagement themes, and drawbacks of focusing on passive ESG index performance since the pandemic outbreak.
This edition of the Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Research Analyst Tim Schluter providing an update on the Info Tech sector. Tim addresses how Tech has made it through the year relatively unscathed as technology itself has become the economy’s connective tissue amid COVID-19 disruptions.
The first edition of our new Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Analyst Brad Rotolo recapping what’s been happening in the Energy markets, how Energy shares have reacted, and implications for the broader markets.
This downturn is unprecedented in its speed, and the duration of the economic impact will matter more than the size – the shorter the contraction, the more robust the recovery.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspective Newsletter is published seasonally with the goal of keeping the investment community abreast of our various ESG capabilities and projects. 2019 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched our first impact portfolio-aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, hired an industry expert on corporate engagement & responsibility, continued pushing data boundaries throughout our proprietary ESG research and started exploring ways to make our operations more sustainable.
We expect 2020 will be a moderately positive year for equities. Sentiment is still not euphoric, yet continues to improve as 2019’s big fears did not materialize. A Goldilocks economy is emerging from a mid-cycle slowdown, while political uncertainty should peak early then fade through the U.S. presidential election.
Long, flat periods followed by gains have been a hallmark of this bull, which should continue with volatility into 2020.
We expect the market to continue accelerating in this bull’s final third – albeit at a slower pace in the second half of the year – on the back of post-correction highs.
Equities have rebounded strongly from 2018’s lows, demonstrating a V-shaped recovery associated with prior corrections. We expect equities to accelerate through the bull market’s final third.
2018’s market decline was driven more by fear than fundamentals, a classic characteristic of corrections which typically feature strong V-shaped recoveries. We expect the bull market to resume selling pressure from the end of 2018 to ease and corporate and economic fundamentals remain solid.
With US midterm elections on the horizon, we expect the bull market to continue as investors begin to appreciate underlying fundamentals and fears of a trade war and Eurozone breakup dissipate.
Inflation and trade war fears are overblown and we expect the bull market to continue accelerating upward.
Despite Q1’s pullback, we expect the bull market to continue. The global economy is in full expansion mode while corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Bull markets typically have steep gains early, flatten out in the middle, and reaccelerate upward I the final third.
The S&P 500 rose 3.1% in November, bringing year-to-date gains to 20.5%. After 13 straight monthly gains--the second-longest on record--some question whether the streak can continue.
Europe is early in its credit cycle with positive momentum in economic drivers and underappreciated balance sheet strength, which should allow most European Banks to accelerate credit growth with improved profitability for at least the next few years.
As the largest economy in Eastern Europe with a strong economic relationship with developed Europe, Poland offers broad exposure to the European market.
The voters have spoken and Donald Trump will be America’s next President. The Republicans will keep both houses of Congress, losing only a handful of seats. S&P 500 futures plunged in overnight trading, but short-term volatility is normal and US markets have since stabilized, closing the day after elections in positive territory. Markets move most on the gap between reality and expectations. People fear Trump’s campaign pledges, but politicians’ promises rarely become reality.
The British people have officially voted to leave the European Union (EU). While Scotland, Northern Ireland and London supported remaining in the EU, Wales and the remainder of England overwhelmingly voted to leave. At final tally, 52% voted “Leave” versus 48% “Remain”. This piece breaks down the intricacies of the Brexit decision and analyzes the variables behind the uncertainty clouding the markets.
In the Q1 2016 earnings season, some department stores reported weaker-than-expected results with news of declining sales and profits. Media was quick to dramatize the reports with cries of a US “retail recession” and assertions that the consumer is tapped out —all bad signs for US growth looking forward. However, in this piece, we would humbly suggest that is incorrect.
On June 23rd, a public referendum will decide whether the United Kingdom remains in the European Union (EU). Britain’s possible exit from the EU, popularly named “Brexit”, has been the subject of heated debate with a number of high profile supporters on either side. This piece examines the likelihood of Brexit discusses potential implications for equity markets.
An in-depth analysis that debunks prevailing fears around China’s Debt & GDP growth, US oil industry debt, and the Fed’s balance sheet.
A summarized analysis that puts EM corporate debt into perspective and reveals the portion denominated in USD.
Founded in 1979, Fisher Investments is an independent, fee-only investment adviser with $169 billion under management.* Fisher Investments maintains four principal business units, Fisher Investments Institutional Group, Fisher Investments Private Client Group, Fisher Investments 401(k) Solutions Group and Fisher Investments International Group, which serve a global client base of diverse investors. The clients of Fisher Investments and its affiliates include over 85,000 clients. Founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 through 2016, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 03/31/21)