Macro Minutes: Why Growth in 2021

In this month’s edition of Macro Minutes, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Dan Mathews discusses Fisher Investments’ views on global growth and value stocks for the year ahead.

Key Points

  • The magnitude of last year’s drawdown was bear-like, but was quick, recovering within months, similar to a standard correction.
  • When 10Y minus 3M US Treasury yield spreads are greater than 2%, value stocks frequently outperform. When spreads are below 2%, growth stocks tend to outperform. Currently, the Treasury spread is around 1.4%, which is too narrow for value outperformance historically.
  • Market breadth has narrowed instead of resetting, a late cycle condition.

*The foregoing information constitutes the views of Fisher Investments based on information believed to be reliable. There can be no assurances that Fisher Investments will continue to hold these views. These views may change at any time based on new information, analysis, or reconsideration.
About Fisher Investments

Founded in 1979, Fisher Investments is an independent, fee-only investment adviser with $197 billion under management.* Fisher Investments maintains four principal business units, Fisher Investments Institutional Group, Fisher Investments Private Client Group, Fisher Investments 401(k) Solutions Group and Fisher Investments Private Client Group International, which serve a global client base of diverse investors. The clients of Fisher Investments and its affiliates include over 100,000 clients. Founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 through 2016, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 3/31/2022)