Global markets extended their climb in Q1, rising 4.6%. Value equities led growth with Tech and Tech-like equities lagging, however we believe this to be a temporary countertrend. We are monitoring this carefully with the understanding that style volatility is normal. Crucially, our outlook hasn’t changed. We still think equities should have a good year, with growth regaining its leadership as markets climb alongside sentiment.
Global markets finished 2020 positively, increasing 14.7% in Q4 to bring full-year returns to 16.3%—a testament to markets’ resiliency and forward-looking nature. Tech, Tech-like and quality, growth-oriented equities have generally led the recovery from the March low despite several countertrend value rallies.
The nascent bull market continued in Q3 as the MSCI ACWI hit new highs before encountering September turbulence—normal volatility, in our view, even this early in a bull market. Overall, global equities rose 8.1% in the quarter. Nine months in, global equities are up 1.4% on the year.
Global equities followed one of history’s worst quarters with one of its best in Q2, soaring 19.2%. Year-to-date, global equities are down -6.3%. Similarly, emerging market equities rose 18.1% in Q2, as growing progress—and clarity—on major emerging and developed countries’ COVID-19 lockdown relaxations continued.
Global equities fell sharply in Q1 dropping -21.4%, going from all-time highs in January to a bear market with record-breaking speed. The sudden fall, combined with society’s understandable worries about COVID-19’s impact on their health, their loved ones and their community, has spread fear to every corner of the world—and the marketplace.
Global equities capped the strongest year since 2009 with Q4’s 9% gain, lifting full-year returns to 26.6%. We expect the bull market to continue in 2020, although returns are unlikely to match 2019’s magnitude.
After rising 16.2% in 2019’s torrid first half, global equities took a breather in Q3—finishing flat for the quarter. As we anticipated, equities had more short-term volatility than earlier in the year, which slowed gains.
Global equities added another 3.6% in Q2, capping the strongest first-half since the late 1980s. As we anticipated, Q2 brought more volatility than Q1, but robust returns in June carried equities to all-time highs, with the MSCI All Country World Index returning 16.2% year to date.
Through March 31, global equities were up 16.9% since December 25’s low and 12.2% in Q1. The MSCI All Country World Index has enjoyed the V-shaped recovery we expected following the sharp sell-off in December. Overall, this should be only the beginning of a great year for global markets.
2018 was a difficult year—downside volatility returned and the year concluded with the second worst December on record. Global equities declined -9.4% last year and returns didn’t meet our optimistic expectations. Yet, looking forward (as markets do), evidence we will detail overwhelmingly argues against being bearish now.
Global equities continued rebounding in Q3, with the MSCI All Country World Index and finishing near all-time Highs. In Q3, Brexit negotiations, volatile commodity prices, tariffs, widening Italian budget deficits, interest rates, currency swings and corporate earnings drove headlines and spurred fears within developed economies.
The MSCI All Country World Index finished the second quarter up slightly amid evolving fears. Concerns over rising yields, tariffs, slower economic growth and politics alternated headlines as this correction’s alleged cause.
A tumultuous first quarter of 2018 saw the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) finish down -1.0% as increased volatility tested investors patience.i After posting strong returns in January, global markets tumbled, with the S&P 500’s pullback crossing -10%, reaching official correction territory. The MSCI ACWI came close but regained some ground in the quarter’s final week.
iSource: FactSet as of 04/04/2018. MSCI All Country World Index return with net dividends in USD, 12/31/2017 - 09/30/2017 - 03/30/2018.
This bull market has powered into its final third, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) adding another 5.7%, bringing calendar year 2017 gains to 24.0%i. We remain bullish and expect markets to deliver strong returns in 2018.
iSource: FactSet as of 1/5/2018. MSCI All Country World Index return with net dividends,12/31/2016 - 12/31/2017.
Global stocks continued rising in Q3, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) returning 5.18% and bringing year- to- date gains to 17.25%.i As we expected, Q1 2017 has proven to be a blueprint for the second half of the year, with Information Technology continuing to outperform. Further, non-US stocks continued beating US, with Eurozone leading the charge.
iSource: FactSet as of 10/05/2017. MSCI All Country World Index return with net dividends, 06/30/2017 - 09/30/2017 and 12/30/2016 - 09/30/2017.
Global markets continued their rise in Q2, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) adding another 4.3% - bringing year to date returns to 11.5%.i Non-US stocks again outperformed, with European stocks faring particularly well. We see 2017’s back half as amplifying early-year trends, and all seems on track for a great 2017 led by non-US stocks.
iSource: FactSet as of 07/07/2017. MSCI All Country World Index return with net dividends, 03/31/2017 - 06/30/2017 and 12/30/2016 - 06/30/2017.
Global markets continued rallying in the first quarter of 2017 with the MSCI All Country World Index returning 6.9%.i We believe the strength in Q1 is a continuation of the trend that started last year, an initial surge as this bull market enters its final third—typically an acceleration phase. This implies not only robust returns in 2017, but plenty of bull market ahead.
iSource: FactSet, as of 4/5/2017. MSCI All Country World Index returns with net dividends, 12/31/2016 – 3/31/2016.
2016 ended on an upbeat note, bringing the MSCI All Country World Index’s (ACWI) full-year return to 7.96.i Entering last year, we believed global stocks would do fine, steadily gaining steam as uncertainty ebbed. 2017 should be even better—a great year, rewarding equity investors.
iSource: FactSet as of 01/03/2017. MSCI All Country World Index return with net dividends, 12/31/2015 - 12/31/2016.
Global markets rebounded from Q3's correction, with the MSCI All World Country Index (ACWI) finishing Q4 up 5.0%.i We believe the bull market continues in 2016, as conditions are better than most perceive. Politics continue to garner much attention--particularly in the US--but still are not worrisome. Sentiment is far too gloomy relative to reality, leaving ample room for more optimism ahead.
iSource: FactSet as of 10/14/2016. Average price return of the seven upgraded and seven downgraded nations before and after the change, in US dollars. Analysis excludes Bangladesh, Serbia and Lithuania due to data availability.
Founded in 1979, Fisher Investments is an independent, fee-only investment adviser with $169 billion under management.* Fisher Investments maintains four principal business units, Fisher Investments Institutional Group, Fisher Investments Private Client Group, Fisher Investments 401(k) Solutions Group and Fisher Investments International Group, which serve a global client base of diverse investors. The clients of Fisher Investments and its affiliates include over 85,000 clients. Founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 through 2016, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 03/31/21)