Macro Minutes: Inflation and the 3-Month Rule

Key Points

  • Today’s inflationary conditions are most likely short-term, associated with the re-opening of the economy.
  • Inflation can be an end-of-cycle indicator, but we doubt that is the case today because many other bear market indicators are missing.
  • If we are wrong and more bear market conditions begin to develop, losses tend to be minimal early in bears.