In our latest Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Capital Markets Research Analyst Seth Hersch shares our outlook on Japan and breaks down the composition of Japanese equities, as well as governance-related reforms impacting the market.
We believe a new bull market is underway and that 2023 should continue to be a strong year for global equities. In a slow-growth economy with widespread recession fears, high-quality all-weather growth equities should benefit nicely. Excessive pessimism tied to inflation, falling earnings, fed policy fears and narrow market breadth likely lead to continued positive surprise and strong equity returns in the second half of 2023.
In this short Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Equities Research Analyst Larissa Murray discusses the market impact of a possible earnings recession and why it could highlight an underappreciated positive.
We believe a new bull market is near or already underway. Equities that fell the most during the downturn have led the recovery so far, but this “bounce effect” has a limited lifespan. If an economic downturn arrives in 2023, widespread recession expectations likely mute its impact, and dour sentiment regarding inflation, falling earnings and US regional banking problems helps set the stage for positive surprise and strong equity returns going forward.
The ESG Newsletter is published bi-annually to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, updates on our international responsible investment initiatives, and more.
In this month’s Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Tom Kirby explains the “bounce effect” and which types of equities we expect to outperform moving forward.
We believe a new bull market cycle is close, if not already underway. Growth should outperform early as the hardest-hit equity categories rebound, but cyclical value stocks may take over by yearend. Widespread pessimism over inflation, central banks and recession is likely priced into markets creating an opportunity for positive surprise in 2023.
In our first Macro Minutes of the year, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Scott O’Leary shares our global market outlook for 2023 and explains why markets will likely be higher by year-end.
Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas (~1/3 of Europe's total energy consumption) has created increased energy supply concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In response, many European countries have accelerated their liquefied natural gas (LNG) inventory levels, increased LNG imports from other countries and improved LNG intake and storage infrastructure. While worst-case scenarios are always possible, alongside European fiscal stimulus and support for consumers, we believe these actions will mitigate impacts from Russian supply cutoff.
In our most recent Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Tom Cole reflects on the resiliency of Q3 corporate earnings despite supposedly dour outlook and discusses expectations moving into Q4.
Equities hit hardest during this year’s downturn are likely to benefit most in the initial recovery. A final market capitulation is far from certain and likely to come and go quickly if at all. While the global economy faces challenges, we expect solid returns moving into 2023 with existing fears already largely priced in.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Capital Markets Research Analyst Davis Hein offers a global perspective on the recent market volatility in the UK, taking a step back to look at how we got here and differentiate fear from fact as we look forward.
Key goods inflation measures appear to be waning as supply chain index, transportation backlogs, and transportation costs fall from recent highs.
The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, the US Supreme Court’s ruling on EPA authority, and our response to evolving regulations.
In our most recent Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Luke Puetz explains how Fisher Investments views the upcoming US midterm election given today’s inflationary environment and discusses how it could impact equity markets.
While the global economy shows pockets of weakness and strength, it is a better reality than the extreme negative sentiment already reflected in equities. Recoveries from market downturns often begin when sentiment becomes excessively dour, setting the stage for an upside surprise.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses Fisher Investments’ optimistic views of China’s equity markets and examines the catalysts behind China’s positive performance, despite global, developed, and emerging equity markets’ negative performance.
The ESG Insights 2022 includes commentary on global ESG trends, observations on electric vehicles and carbon emissions, as well as ESG performance and management in value-led markets, and more.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Senior Responsible Investments Manager Seth Groener discusses the challenges investors face in simultaneouasly meeting both their financial and ‘Net Zero’ climate goals. He also reviews common features of Net Zero initiatives and shares a hypothetical Paris-aligned equity framework.
Investor sentiment has deteriorated rapidly in early 2022, which is typical during a correction’s depths. However, strong household balance sheets, growing businesses, and improving credit conditions are among the positives that should support the economy going forward. Recoveries from market corrections often begin when sentiment becomes excessively dour, setting the stage for an upside surprise.
In May’s Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Portfolio Engineer Chase Arneson discusses inflation, focusing on the unique set of circumstances that have contributed to its recent rise. He explains why we believe those drivers are unlikely to continue and why inflation will likely moderate.
In this Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Securities Research Analyst YoungRo Yoon provides an overview of the semiconductor industry and explains our outlook.
The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, biodiversity, COP26, and FI’s recent recognition in the ESG space including the Swiss Sustainable Funds Award and various ecolabels.
The global equity bull market should continue in 2022 with volatility early in the year but a strong finish. Economic growth and inflation expectations likely continue to moderate as supply and labour constraints subside.
This month’s Macro Minutes video features Securities Research Analyst Jake Riddell who provides an update on the Info Tech sector. He reviews Tech’s performance in today’s late-cycle environment, as well as its attractive growth characteristics.
We believe China’s bear market is driven by sentiment, a potential positive for Tech and Tech-like industries if the market reaction is overdone.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Raymond Chen discusses how investor sentiment evolves through the market and how we track it, as well as our views on where investor sentiment is today.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Securities Research Analyst Zacher Lewis discusses recent volatility in metals prices.
The bull market should continue as a healthy global economy, strong corporate results, and rising investor sentiment support equities. However, global economic growth and inflation likely moderate going forward.
The ESG Insights 2021 includes commentary on global ESG trends, observations about the electric vehicle industry, ESG management in value-led markets, and more.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Luke Puetz explains why Fisher Investments believes the recent heightened inflation is likely to fade as the pace of economic growth normalises.
Energy has recently underperformed as the Delta variant impacts demand recovery, while the sector faces future fundamental headwinds as oil supply is ample set to increase with additional OPEC barrels and growing U.S. production.
In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Galen Donaldson covers our top-down views of India.
There is likely more bull market ahead as a strong economy and rising sentiment support equities, though we do not expect future economic growth and inflation to be as robust as many expect.
Emerging Markets (EM) equities are not a static asset class. Shifting macro trends have transformed EM and now consist of a more diverse universe that represents attractive opportunities for investors.
The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. Thus far, 2021 has been an impactful year for ESG at Fisher Investments. Our Emerging Markets ex-Fossil Fuels Equity strategy earned CDP's prestigious "Climetrics" award for top climate strategy (March 2021), the Austrian Ecolabel (April 2020), and Toward Sustainability Label (May 2021). In addition, we continued to push data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.
In June’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Paige Tyson shares Fisher Investments’ views of Brazil. She talks about the composition of Brazil’s equity market and key investment opportunities we see, as well as how recent political events are shaping our view of the country.
Massive stimulus packages have investors’ fearing an uptick in inflation and its effect on equity markets. In this paper, we explore the historical effects of fiscal stimulus on GDP growth and make the argument that any inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the initial pent-up demand fades and companies return to full capacity following recessionary cutbacks during the pandemic.
In May’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Tom Kirby discusses recent equity supply trends, how Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) fit into this big picture, and recent developments in the SPAC market.
Rising sentiment is likely to be a key driver of returns in what we expect to be a strong year for global equities led by bigger, high-quality growth names.
In April’s Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses China’s economic recovery, fears of potential policy tightening, recent regulatory concerns and our positive outlook for global and Chinese equities.
In this Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Analyst Nurul Bachik discusses the challenges investors may face when quantifying carbon emissions and suggests a more comprehensive approach to carbon management.
In this month’s edition of Macro Minutes, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Dan Mathews discusses Fisher Investments’ views on global growth and value equities for the year ahead. Our current preference for growth stems from our most differentiated viewpoint: markets are in the late stages of a long cycle.
Continued economic improvement, a stable global political environment and warming investor sentiment are all supportive for equities in 2021.
In January’s Macro Minutes video, Davis Hein explains how we use one particular aspect of sentiment – other professional’s forecasts – to create a sentiment bell curve which proves useful as we create our own equity market forecasts for 2021.
In November’s short Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Brent Hankins discusses what today’s environment means for inflation and the US dollar. He covers current inflation expectations, why a rapid rise in inflation is unlikely, and the sentiment driven movement of the US dollar this year.
High-quality growth companies should continue to lead, but investors should be vigilant for changing economic and market conditions that could lead to a leadership shift.
In this 5-minute Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Jarred Kriz explains how Fisher Investments thinks objectively about politics to analyse the potential impact on markets and portfolios.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of our ESG capabilities and projects. 2020 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched a Diversity & Inclusion roadmap, refined our methodology for understanding positive portfolio impact, and continued pushing data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.
ESG Insights is a one-stop shop for all of our key ESG research findings. The latest ESG Insights includes ESG implications of COVID-19, global ESG trends, renewable energy opportunities, and limitations of ESG scores.
In September’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Charles Dornbush explains how Health Care’s defensive nature largely explains its performance this year. He also provides an update on the progress towards an effective COVID-19 vaccine and how the Health Care sector may be impacted by the upcoming US presidential election.
In this edition of the Macro Minutes video series, ESG Programme Manager Zoe Abbott Boyd addresses how the scale of a company’s positive environmental activities matters. Big tech firms and large oil companies are improving their environmental impact by supporting energy efficiency and alternative energy.
The UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) awarded Fisher Investments with the highest score of an A+ for our Strategy & Governance and Incorporation modules, as well as an A for our Active Ownership module.
We believe the equity rally since late March marks the start of a new bull market. However, the market drop and recovery have so far acted more like a massive correction than traditional bear and bull markets, without a lasting style shift.
We believe large growth remains in a favourable position, almost as if the bull market never really ended, and the March drawdown instead behaved more like a severe correction.
In this video, we highlight the strength of ESG demand, key emerging engagement themes, and drawbacks of focusing on passive ESG index performance since the pandemic outbreak.
This edition of the Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Research Analyst Tim Schluter providing an update on the Info Tech sector. Tim addresses how Tech has made it through the year relatively unscathed as technology itself has become the economy’s connective tissue amid COVID-19 disruptions.
The first edition of our new Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Analyst Brad Rotolo recapping what’s been happening in the Energy markets, how Energy shares have reacted, and implications for the broader markets.
This downturn is unprecedented in its speed, and the duration of the economic impact will matter more than the size – the shorter the contraction, the more robust the recovery.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspective Newsletter is published seasonally with the goal of keeping the investment community abreast of our various ESG capabilities and projects. 2019 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched our first impact portfolio-aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, hired an industry expert on corporate engagement & responsibility, continued pushing data boundaries throughout our proprietary ESG research and started exploring ways to make our operations more sustainable.
We expect 2020 will be a moderately positive year for equities. Sentiment is still not euphoric, yet continues to improve as 2019’s big fears did not materialize. A Goldilocks economy is emerging from a mid-cycle slowdown, while political uncertainty should peak early then fade through the U.S. presidential election.
Long, flat periods followed by gains have been a hallmark of this bull, which should continue with volatility into 2020.
We expect the market to continue accelerating in this bull’s final third – albeit at a slower pace in the second half of the year – on the back of post-correction highs.
Equities have rebounded strongly from 2018’s lows, demonstrating a V-shaped recovery associated with prior corrections. We expect equities to accelerate through the bull market’s final third.
2018’s market decline was driven more by fear than fundamentals, a classic characteristic of corrections which typically feature strong V-shaped recoveries. We expect the bull market to resume selling pressure from the end of 2018 to ease and corporate and economic fundamentals remain solid.
With US midterm elections on the horizon, we expect the bull market to continue as investors begin to appreciate underlying fundamentals and fears of a trade war and Eurozone breakup dissipate.
Inflation and trade war fears are overblown and we expect the bull market to continue accelerating upward.
Despite Q1’s pullback, we expect the bull market to continue. The global economy is in full expansion mode while corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Bull markets typically have steep gains early, flatten out in the middle, and reaccelerate upward I the final third.
Fisher Investments Australasia offers a variety of Global, Non-US, and US Equity strategies for institutional investors. FIA delegates portfolio management to its parent company, Fisher Investments, a money management firm in the US founded in 1979 by investment guru Ken Fisher. Today, Fisher Investments and its affiliates oversee more than $318 billion* in assets for over 135,000 clients globally.* Founder Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 through 2016, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 30/06/2023)
For your reference, Fisher Investments Australasia is an investment manager located in Sydney. The parent company, Fisher Investments, is based in the United States, and manages assets for large institutional clients around the world.