Massive stimulus packages have investors’ fearing an uptick in inflation and its effect on equity markets. In this paper, we explore the historical effects of fiscal stimulus on GDP growth and make the argument that any inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the initial pent-up demand fades and companies return to full capacity following recessionary cutbacks during the pandemic.
In May’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Tom Kirby discusses recent equity supply trends, how Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) fit into this big picture, and recent developments in the SPAC market.
Rising sentiment is likely to be a key driver of returns in what we expect to be a strong year for global equities led by bigger, high-quality growth names.
In April’s Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses China’s economic recovery, fears of potential policy tightening, recent regulatory concerns and our positive outlook for global and Chinese equities.
In this Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Analyst Nurul Bachik discusses the challenges investors may face when quantifying carbon emissions and suggests a more comprehensive approach to carbon management.
In this month’s edition of Macro Minutes, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Dan Mathews discusses Fisher Investments’ views on global growth and value equities for the year ahead. Our current preference for growth stems from our most differentiated viewpoint: markets are in the late stages of a long cycle.
Continued economic improvement, a stable global political environment and warming investor sentiment are all supportive for equities in 2021.
In January’s Macro Minutes video, Davis Hein explains how we use one particular aspect of sentiment – other professional’s forecasts – to create a sentiment bell curve which proves useful as we create our own equity market forecasts for 2021.
In November’s short Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Brent Hankins discusses what today’s environment means for inflation and the US dollar. He covers current inflation expectations, why a rapid rise in inflation is unlikely, and the sentiment driven movement of the US dollar this year.
High-quality growth companies should continue to lead, but investors should be vigilant for changing economic and market conditions that could lead to a leadership shift.
In this 5-minute Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Jarred Kriz explains how Fisher Investments thinks objectively about politics to analyse the potential impact on markets and portfolios.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of our ESG capabilities and projects. 2020 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched a Diversity & Inclusion roadmap, refined our methodology for understanding positive portfolio impact, and continued pushing data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.
ESG Insights is a one-stop shop for all of our key ESG research findings. The latest ESG Insights includes ESG implications of COVID-19, global ESG trends, renewable energy opportunities, and limitations of ESG scores.
In September’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Charles Dornbush explains how Health Care’s defensive nature largely explains its performance this year. He also provides an update on the progress towards an effective COVID-19 vaccine and how the Health Care sector may be impacted by the upcoming US presidential election.
In this edition of the Macro Minutes video series, ESG Programme Manager Zoe Abbott Boyd addresses how the scale of a company’s positive environmental activities matters. Big tech firms and large oil companies are improving their environmental impact by supporting energy efficiency and alternative energy.
The UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) awarded Fisher Investments with the highest score of an A+ for our Strategy & Governance and Incorporation modules, as well as an A for our Active Ownership module.
We believe the equity rally since late March marks the start of a new bull market. However, the market drop and recovery have so far acted more like a massive correction than traditional bear and bull markets, without a lasting style shift.
We believe large growth remains in a favourable position, almost as if the bull market never really ended, and the March drawdown instead behaved more like a severe correction.
In this video, we highlight the strength of ESG demand, key emerging engagement themes, and drawbacks of focusing on passive ESG index performance since the pandemic outbreak.
This edition of the Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Research Analyst Tim Schluter providing an update on the Info Tech sector. Tim addresses how Tech has made it through the year relatively unscathed as technology itself has become the economy’s connective tissue amid COVID-19 disruptions.
The first edition of our new Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Analyst Brad Rotolo recapping what’s been happening in the Energy markets, how Energy shares have reacted, and implications for the broader markets.
This downturn is unprecedented in its speed, and the duration of the economic impact will matter more than the size – the shorter the contraction, the more robust the recovery.
The Fisher Investments ESG Perspective Newsletter is published seasonally with the goal of keeping the investment community abreast of our various ESG capabilities and projects. 2019 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched our first impact portfolio-aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, hired an industry expert on corporate engagement & responsibility, continued pushing data boundaries throughout our proprietary ESG research and started exploring ways to make our operations more sustainable.
We expect 2020 will be a moderately positive year for equities. Sentiment is still not euphoric, yet continues to improve as 2019’s big fears did not materialize. A Goldilocks economy is emerging from a mid-cycle slowdown, while political uncertainty should peak early then fade through the U.S. presidential election.
Long, flat periods followed by gains have been a hallmark of this bull, which should continue with volatility into 2020.
We expect the market to continue accelerating in this bull’s final third – albeit at a slower pace in the second half of the year – on the back of post-correction highs.
Equities have rebounded strongly from 2018’s lows, demonstrating a V-shaped recovery associated with prior corrections. We expect equities to accelerate through the bull market’s final third.
2018’s market decline was driven more by fear than fundamentals, a classic characteristic of corrections which typically feature strong V-shaped recoveries. We expect the bull market to resume selling pressure from the end of 2018 to ease and corporate and economic fundamentals remain solid.
With US midterm elections on the horizon, we expect the bull market to continue as investors begin to appreciate underlying fundamentals and fears of a trade war and Eurozone breakup dissipate.
Inflation and trade war fears are overblown and we expect the bull market to continue accelerating upward.
Despite Q1’s pullback, we expect the bull market to continue. The global economy is in full expansion mode while corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Bull markets typically have steep gains early, flatten out in the middle, and reaccelerate upward I the final third.
Fisher Investments Australia offers a variety of Global, Non-US, and US Equity strategies for institutional investors. FIA delegates portfolio management to its parent company, Fisher Investments, a money management firm in the US founded in 1979 by investment guru Ken Fisher. Today, Fisher Investments and its affiliates oversee more than $222 billion (AUD)* in assets for over 85,000 clients globally.* Founder Ken Fisher’s “Portfolio Strategy” column for Forbes ran from 1984 through 2016, making him the longest continually running columnist in the magazine’s 90+ year history. He has also authored several New York Times bestsellers on finance and investing. (*As of 31/03/2021)
For your reference, Fisher Investments Australasia is an investment manager located in Sydney. The parent company, Fisher Investments, is based in the United States, and manages assets for large institutional clients around the world.