Macro Minutes: Sentiment and the Market

Key Points

  • A sentiment bell curve helps us better understand what expectations are priced into the markets.
  • For 2021, the majority of analysts predict US markets will increase between 1% and 9%, with a median forecast for a 6.5% increase in the S&P 500.
  • Our research shows that markets often discount investor’s expectations and calendar year returns rarely align with professional forecasts.