Macro Minutes: Inflation and the 3-Month Rule

Key Points

  • Today’s inflationary conditions are most likely short-term, associated with the re-opening of the economy.
  • Inflation can be an end-of-cycle indicator, but we doubt that is the case today because many other bear market indicators are missing.
  • If we are wrong and more bear market conditions begin to develop, losses tend to be minimal early in bears.
Investing in financial markets involves a risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any invested capital will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance. The value of investments and the income from them will fluctuate with world financial markets and international currency exchange rates.