Macro Insights Q2 2023


We believe a new bull market is near or already underway. Equities that fell the most during the downturn have led the recovery so far, but this “bounce effect” has a limited lifespan. If an economic downturn arrives in 2023, widespread recession expectations likely mute its impact, and dour sentiment regarding inflation, falling earnings and US regional banking problems helps set the stage for positive surprise and strong equity returns going forward.

Macro Minutes: Could an Earnings Recession Derail the Recovery?


In this short Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Equities Research Analyst Larissa Murray discusses the market impact of a possible earnings recession and why it could highlight an underappreciated positive.

ESG Perspectives Newsletter Q1 2023


The ESG Newsletter is published bi-annually to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, updates on our international responsible investment initiatives, and more.

Macro Insights Q1 2023


We believe a new bull market cycle is close, if not already underway. Growth should outperform early as the hardest-hit equity categories rebound, but cyclical value stocks may take over by yearend. Widespread pessimism over inflation, central banks and recession is likely priced into markets creating an opportunity for positive surprise in 2023.

Macro Minutes: Which Equities Will Lead in a New Bull Market?


In this month’s Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Tom Kirby explains the “Bounce Effect” and which types of equities we expect to outperform moving forward.

Macro Minutes: 2023 Outlook: What's Next for Markets


In our first Macro Minutes of the year, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Scott O’Leary shares our global market outlook for 2023 and explains why markets will likely be higher by year-end.

Assessing Europe’s Energy Crisis - Infographic


Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas (~1/3 of Europe's total energy consumption) has created increased energy supply concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In response, many European countries have accelerated their liquefied natural gas (LNG) inventory levels, increased LNG imports from other countries and improved LNG intake and storage infrastructure. While worst-case scenarios are always possible, alongside European fiscal stimulus and support for consumers, we believe these actions will mitigate impacts from Russian supply cutoff.

Macro Minutes: Q3 Earnings vs. Expectations


In our most recent Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Tom Cole reflects on the resiliency of Q3 corporate earnings despite supposedly dour outlook and discusses expectations moving into Q4.

Macro Insights Q4 2022


Equities hit hardest during this year’s downturn are likely to benefit most in the initial recovery. A final market capitulation is far from certain and likely to come and go quickly if at all. While the global economy faces challenges, we expect solid returns moving into 2023 with existing fears already largely priced in.

Macro Minutes: UK Market Volatility


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Capital Markets Research Analyst Davis Hein offers a global perspective on the recent market volatility in the UK, taking a step back to look at how we got here and differentiate fear from fact as we look forward.

Key Goods Inflation Measures Waning - Infographic


Key goods inflation measures appear to be waning as supply chain index, transportation backlogs, and transportation costs fall from recent highs.

ESG Perspectives Newsletter Q3 2022


The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, the US Supreme Court’s ruling on EPA authority, and our response to evolving regulations.

Macro Minutes: Midterms and Equity Markets


In our most recent Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Luke Puetz explains how Fisher Investments views the upcoming US midterm election given today’s inflationary environment and discusses how it could impact equity markets.

Macro Insights Q3 2022


While the global economy shows pockets of weakness and strength, it is a better reality than the extreme negative sentiment already reflected in equities. Recoveries from market downturns often begin when sentiment becomes excessively dour, setting the stage for an upside surprise.

Macro Minutes: China: Reasons for Optimism


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses Fisher Investments’ optimistic views of China’s equity markets and examines the catalysts behind China’s positive performance, despite global, developed, and emerging equity markets’ negative performance.

ESG Insights 2022


The ESG Insights 2022 includes commentary on global ESG trends, observations on electric vehicles and carbon emissions, as well as ESG performance and management in value-led markets, and more.

Macro Minutes: Challenges and Solutions for Net Zero/Paris-Aligned Investors


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Senior Responsible Investments Manager Seth Groener discusses the challenges investors face in simultaneouasly meeting both their financial and ‘Net Zero’ climate goals. He also reviews common features of Net Zero initiatives and shares a hypothetical Paris-aligned equity framework.

Macro Insights Q2 2022


Investor sentiment has deteriorated rapidly in early 2022, which is typical during a correction’s depths. However, strong household balance sheets, growing businesses, and improving credit conditions are among the positives that should support the economy going forward. Recoveries from market corrections often begin when sentiment becomes excessively dour, setting the stage for an upside surprise.

Macro Minutes: Inflation: Where Do We Go from Here?


In May’s Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Portfolio Engineer Chase Arneson discusses inflation, focusing on the unique set of circumstances that have contributed to its recent rise. He explains why we believe those drivers are unlikely to continue and why inflation will likely moderate.

Macro Minutes: Performance Drivers for Semiconductors


In this Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments’ Securities Research Analyst YoungRo Yoon provides an overview of the semiconductor industry and explains our outlook. 

ESG Perspectives Newsletter


The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. This edition covers FI’s corporate engagement highlights, biodiversity, COP26, and FI’s recent recognition in the ESG space including the Swiss Sustainable Funds Award and various ecolabels.

Macro Insights Q1 2022


The global equity bull market should continue in 2022 with volatility early in the year but a strong finish. Economic growth and inflation expectations likely continue to moderate as supply and labour constraints subside.

Macro Minutes: Tech Positioning in Current Market Cycle


This month’s Macro Minutes video features Securities Research Analyst Jake Riddell who provides an update on the Info Tech sector. He reviews Tech’s performance in today’s late-cycle environment, as well as its attractive growth characteristics.

Are Chinese Regulatory Fears Overblown? - Infographic


We believe China’s bear market is driven by sentiment, a potential positive for Tech and Tech-like industries if the market reaction is overdone.

Macro Minutes: Sentiment in Market Cycles


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Raymond Chen discusses how investor sentiment evolves through the market and how we track it, as well as our views on where investor sentiment is today.

Macro Minutes: What Is Driving Metal’s Volatility?


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Securities Research Analyst Zacher Lewis discusses recent volatility in metals prices.

Macro Insights Q4 2021


The bull market should continue as a healthy global economy, strong corporate results, and rising investor sentiment support equities. However, global economic growth and inflation likely moderate going forward.

ESG Insights 2021


The ESG Insights 2021 includes commentary on global ESG trends, observations about the electric vehicle industry, ESG management in value-led markets, and more.

Macro Minutes: Inflation and the 3-Month Rule


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Luke Puetz explains why Fisher Investments believes the recent heightened inflation is likely to fade as the pace of economic growth normalises.

Strong Supply and Delta Variant Challenge Energy - Infographic


Energy has recently underperformed as the Delta variant impacts demand recovery, while the sector faces future fundamental headwinds as oil supply is ample set to increase with additional OPEC barrels and growing U.S. production. 

Macro Minutes: India, Market Leader or Laggard


In our latest Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Galen Donaldson covers our top-down views of India.

Macro Insights Q3 2021


There is likely more bull market ahead as a strong economy and rising sentiment support equities, though we do not expect future economic growth and inflation to be as robust as many expect.

How Have Macro Trends Shaped Emerging Markets - Infographic


Emerging Markets (EM) equities are not a static asset class. Shifting macro trends have transformed EM and now consist of a more diverse universe that represents attractive opportunities for investors.

ESG Perspectives Newsletter Q2 2021


The ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of Fisher Investments’ ESG capabilities and projects. Thus far, 2021 has been an impactful year for ESG at Fisher Investments. Our Emerging Markets ex-Fossil Fuels Equity strategy earned CDP's prestigious "Climetrics" award for top climate strategy (March 2021), the Austrian Ecolabel (April 2020), and Toward Sustainability Label (May 2021). In addition, we continued to push data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.

Macro Minutes: Brazil Today: Recent Political Events and Investing Opportunities


In June’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Paige Tyson shares Fisher Investments’ views of Brazil. She talks about the composition of Brazil’s equity market and key investment opportunities we see, as well as how recent political events are shaping our view of the country.

Fiscal Stimulus Is Unlikely to Cause Persistently Higher Inflation


Massive stimulus packages have investors’ fearing an uptick in inflation and its effect on equity markets. In this paper, we explore the historical effects of fiscal stimulus on GDP growth and make the argument that any inflationary pressures are likely to be transitory as the initial pent-up demand fades and companies return to full capacity following recessionary cutbacks during the pandemic.

Macro Minutes: SPACs: A Key Driver of Recent Equity Supply Trends


In May’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Tom Kirby discusses recent equity supply trends, how Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) fit into this big picture, and recent developments in the SPAC market.

Macro Insights Q2 2021


Rising sentiment is likely to be a key driver of returns in what we expect to be a strong year for global equities led by bigger, high-quality growth names.

Macro Minutes: Current Developments in Chinese Markets


In April’s Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Engineer Austin Fraser discusses China’s economic recovery, fears of potential policy tightening, recent regulatory concerns and our positive outlook for global and Chinese equities.

Macro Minutes: The Challenges of Measuring Carbon Emissions


In this Macro Minutes video, Portfolio Analyst Nurul Bachik discusses the challenges investors may face when quantifying carbon emissions and suggests a more comprehensive approach to carbon management.

Macro Minutes: Why Growth in 2021


In this month’s edition of Macro Minutes, Capital Markets Innovation Research Analyst Dan Mathews discusses Fisher Investments’ views on global growth and value equities for the year ahead. Our current preference for growth stems from our most differentiated viewpoint: markets are in the late stages of a long cycle.

Macro Insights Q1 2021


Continued economic improvement, a stable global political environment and warming investor sentiment are all supportive for equities in 2021.

Macro Minutes: Sentiment and the Market


In January’s Macro Minutes video, Davis Hein explains how we use one particular aspect of sentiment – other professional’s forecasts – to create a sentiment bell curve which proves useful as we create our own equity market forecasts for 2021.

Growth vs Value Market Cycle Analysis


As the current market environment continues to support portfolio positioning towards Large Cap, Growth-oriented equities, elevated valuations have suggested a possible role reversal. We explore how this current market environment is connected to the tech bubble, and why we are not concerned about any short-term reversals.

Macro Minutes: Inflation and USD Movement


In November’s short Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Brent Hankins discusses what today’s environment means for inflation and the US dollar. He covers current inflation expectations, why a rapid rise in inflation is unlikely, and the sentiment driven movement of the US dollar this year.

Equity Outlook


Included in our Equity Outlook, you will find our current economic, political and sentiment market drivers for selected regions in global developed and emerging markets.

Macro Insights Q4 2020


We believe the equity rally since late March marks the start of a new bull market. However, the market drop and recovery have so far acted more like a massive correction than traditional bear and bull markets, without a lasting style shift.

Macro Minutes: US Elections & Equity Markets


In this 5-minute Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Jarred Kriz explains how Fisher Investments thinks objectively about politics to analyse the potential impact on markets and portfolios.

Fisher Investments Webinar on the Market Impacts of the US Election


In this webinar, Senior Vice President of Research, Aaron Anderson covers the upcoming US presidential election and potential impacts on equity markets. He discusses how the COVID-19 crisis may influence the election, as well as how a Trump or Biden victory may impact markets. The importance of the political cycle, the leaders who are elected and the economic thinking they subscribe to may be important for how different sectors of the US economy can be expected to perform.

Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter


The Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter is published seasonally to keep the investment community abreast of our ESG capabilities and projects. 2020 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched a Diversity & Inclusion roadmap, refined our methodology for understanding positive portfolio impact, and continued pushing data boundaries through our proprietary ESG research.

Macro Minutes: Health Care Sector Update


In September’s Macro Minutes video, Capital Markets Research Analyst Charles Dornbush explains how Health Care’s defensive nature largely explains its performance this year. He also provides an update on the progress towards an effective COVID-19 vaccine and how the Health Care sector may be impacted by the upcoming US presidential election.

The Case for Emerging Markets Small Cap Equity


Emerging Markets (EM) Small Cap is a unique category within the EM space, offering additional diversification and direct exposure to EM consumers, and it is often overlooked by institutional investors.

How We Analyse the US 2020 Election


As we get closer to the 2020 US Presidential Election, this paper provides a primer on how equity markets and politics interact.

Macro Minutes: Scale Matters to Climate Initiatives


In this edition of the Macro Minutes video series, ESG Programme Manager Zoe Abbott Boyd addresses how the scale of a company’s positive environmental activities matters. Big tech firms and large oil companies are improving their environmental impact by supporting energy efficiency and alternative energy.

Fisher Investments UNPRI Assessment Report 2020


The UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI) awarded Fisher Investments with the highest score of an A+ for our Strategy & Governance and Incorporation modules, as well as an A for our Active Ownership module.

ESG Analysis: How Alternative Meat Is Changing the Food Products Industry


Consumer preferences are constantly evolving and industries have to work to stay relevant and adapt to such changes. The rise of alternative, primarily plant-based, meat poses unique opportunities as well as challenges for new and old players in the Food Products industry. Many of these opportunities and challenges can be tied back to larger ESG trends and issues facing society.

ESG Insights


ESG Insights is a one-stop shop for all of our key ESG research findings. The latest ESG Insights includes ESG implications of COVID-19, global ESG trends, renewable energy opportunities, and limitations of ESG scores.

Evaluating the Market Implications of the US Presidential Election


This paper highlights Fisher Investments’ political analysis of the upcoming US presidential election and the potential impact the election may have on equity markets.

Macro Insights Q3 2020


We believe the equity rally since late March marks the start of a new bull market. However, the market drop and recovery have so far acted more like a massive correction than traditional bear and bull markets, without a lasting style shift.

Macro Minutes: Large Growth vs. Small Value


We believe large growth remains in a favourable position, almost as if the bull market never really ended, and the March drawdown instead behaved more like a severe correction.

How Cloud Computing Supports ESG Investors’ Global Climate Goals


Energy efficiency and renewable use may not be the largest performance drivers, but for ESG investors, cloud service providers serve a clear function in addressing long term climate goals. Fisher Investments’ proprietary top-down materiality system helps make these insights visible. We can then use this to craft responsible investment themes with clarity on how trends impact a given market segment.

Why US Small Cap?


US small cap has a large investable universe with domestically sourced revenue and a performance history of strong, consistent returns. A mandate devoted to US small cap equities can improve diversification, increase direct exposure to the US market and provide a potential for increased returns.

Explaining Recent Biotechnology Performance


As the global search for COVID-19 therapeutics and an eventual vaccine intensifies, we highlight our views as to why the biotechnology industry has significantly outperformed the broader Health Care Sector.

Is a Value Reversal Due?


The claim of Tech valuations nearing the late 1990’s Tech bubble levels appears flawed. Growth has led Value for years, and the economic impact of COVID-19 have increased the spread between Growth and Value, leading some analysts to speculate whether a reversal is “due”.

Impact of COVID-19 on ESG


In this video, we highlight the strength of ESG demand, key emerging engagement themes, and drawbacks of focusing on passive ESG index performance since the pandemic outbreak.

Macro Minutes: Info Tech Sector Update


This edition of the Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Research Analyst Tim Schluter providing an update on the Info Tech sector. Tim addresses how Tech has made it through the year relatively unscathed as technology itself has become the economy’s connective tissue amid COVID-19 disruptions.

Macro Minutes: Energy Sector Update


The first edition of our new Macro Minutes video series features Capital Markets Analyst Brad Rotolo recapping what’s been happening in the Energy markets, how Energy shares have reacted, and implications for the broader markets.

Macro Insights Q2 2020


This downturn is unprecedented in its speed, and the duration of the economic impact will matter more than the size – the shorter the contraction, the more robust the recovery.

Fisher Investments ESG Perspectives Newsletter - Winter 2020 Edition


The Fisher Investments ESG Perspective Newsletter is published seasonally with the goal of keeping the investment community abreast of our various ESG capabilities and projects. 2019 marked a big year for ESG at Fisher Investments. We launched our first impact portfolio-aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, hired an industry expert on corporate engagement & responsibility, continued pushing data boundaries throughout our proprietary ESG research and started exploring ways to make our operations more sustainable.

COVID-19 Research Categories


The environment resulting from COVID-19 is unprecedented in many ways. While historical analysis remains useful in this period, we have reorganised some of our research efforts into six different categories to assess development in this unique period.

COVID-19 Research Categories: Equity Market Internals


The relative performance of different types of equities, such as those most impacted by the effects of COVID-19, may provide signals about shifting investor sentiment.

An Update on Global Markets for Q1


In our view, category leadership throughout the downturn, and investment opportunities within the ensuing recovery will be predicated on how long the widespread shutdowns remain in place.

Scaling Impact of Oil Price Fall


Impacts to the real economy from reductions in capex and employment were manageable from 2014-2016 and likely remain so. Additionally, banks remain modestly exposed to Energy loans, and most lending to the sector remains in the form of corporate debt.

Earnings Growth Commentary


While we do not make formal earnings growth forecasts, we believe the current impact on earnings growth due to the coronavirus outbreak will likely be relatively short-lived.

Global Equity Sector Views


As of 25 March 2020, our global equity sector views have remained largely unchanged. However, we are assessing various possibilities in analyzing how this recent downturn might take its course and have narrowed it to three likely future scenarios.

Opportunities in Low-Carbon Investments


Low carbon strategies are growing in demand, demonstrating the growing opportunities that exist. For investors that are facing the possibility to divest from carbon, we highlight how to construct a carbon divestment strategy and the ways we integrate low-carbon themes into our process.

Don't Fear High Information Technology Valuations


Following a multi-year stretch of almost uninterrupted outperformance, some investors question whether the Information Technology sector is in a position similar to the late 1990s Tech Bubble, pointing to lofty valuations as evidence. However, in our view, not only are valuations an invalid indicator of a second Tech bubble, but they also ignore essential context.

Market Cycle Analysis


As the market cycle continues to mature, we expect the yield curve to remain relatively flat and the economy to shift from investment-driven growth to consumption driven growth. As such, capital intensive sectors will likely lag while service-oriented, consumption-driven sectors will likely lead, driving outperformance for Big Growth equities.

Macro Insights Q1 2020


We expect 2020 will be a moderately positive year for equities. Sentiment is still not euphoric, yet continues to improve as 2019’s big fears did not materialize. A Goldilocks economy is emerging from a mid-cycle slowdown, while political uncertainty should peak early then fade through the U.S. presidential election.

Positive Trends in Brazil


A number of business-friendly reforms against an improving economic backdrop have likely contributed to Brazilian equities surpassing their Emerging Markets (EM) peers this year. With additional beneficial measures planned and pervasive skepticism about their chances of passage, we think more positive surprise may await and remain optimistic of Brazil’s prospects. In our view, Brazil’s experience underscores how economic reforms can lift equities, particularly in the many EM countries where positive reform is badly needed.

Macro Insights Q4 2019


Long, flat periods followed by gains have been a hallmark of this bull, which should continue with volatility into 2020.

Macro Insights Q3 2019


We expect the market to continue accelerating in this bull’s final third – albeit at a slower pace in the second half of the year – on the back of post-correction highs.

Fisher Top Down Macro ESG Themes


Fisher Investments (FI) utilizes a unique combination of top down and bottom up investment process where ESG risks and opportunities are regularly evaluated to determine potential impact on portfolio macro themes, country/sector allocation, and stock selection.

Macro Insights Q2 2019


Equities have rebounded strongly from 2018’s lows, demonstrating a V-shaped recovery associated with prior corrections. We expect equities to accelerate through the bull market’s final third.

Macro Insights Q1 2019


2018’s market decline was driven more by fear than fundamentals, a classic characteristic of corrections which typically feature strong V-shaped recoveries. We expect the bull market to resume selling pressure from the end of 2018 to ease and corporate and economic fundamentals remain solid.

Market Cycle Analysis


In our view, the Big Growth and Small Value performance cycle is linked to the business cycle and yield curve. We also believe the flattening yield curve and cyclical shift from investment–driven growth to consumption-driven growth points to Big Growth outperformance moving forward.

European Financials Outlook


We are currently overweight to European Financials in our global portfolios. Despite recent sentiment-driven underperformance, we expect strong performance going forward. Asset quality, real estate prices, loan growth, LEIs, the yield curve and the end of QE support a healthy future. Overblown trade and political fears have weakened sentiment for European Financials, setting the floor for positive surprises.

Overweight Latin America


The paper was prepared in light of shifts within our Emerging Markets Equity portfolio which increased our overweight to Latin America. Further, the paper discusses the firm’s views to the unfolding political events in Brazil and Mexico at the time of writing.

Macro Insights Q4 2018


With US midterm elections on the horizon, we expect the bull market to continue as investors begin to appreciate underlying fundamentals and fears of a trade war and Eurozone breakup dissipate.

Turkey Commentary


Turkey’s challenges today are driven by years of economic mismanagement and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s actions following his recent consolidation of power.

Macro Insights Q3 2018


Inflation and trade war fears are overblown and we expect the bull market to continue accelerating upward.

Macro Insights Q2 2018


Despite Q1’s pullback, we expect the bull market to continue. The global economy is in full expansion mode while corporate earnings growth remains strong.

EM Commentary


Trade speculation dominated Emerging Markets headlines in March. US President Donald Trump announced plans to levy 25% tariffs on about $50 billion worth of imports from China as well as adopt new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US.

Global Developed ex-US


Political uncertainty continues falling for two of the Eurozone’s biggest economies: Germany and Italy. Germany has a new government, a reboot of the “Grand Coalition” between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

US Commentary


Trade war and Tech regulation fears largely replaced inflation worries during the month, conspiring to drive the S&P 500 down 2.5% in March and retest the correction’s low before regaining some ground in the month’s final week.

Investing in financial markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any capital invested will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance. The value of investments and the income from them will fluctuate with world financial markets and international currency exchange rates.

Fisher Investments Ireland Limited, trading as Fisher Investments Europe, is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI), and is wholly owned by Fisher Asset Management, LLC, trading as Fisher Investments (FI). Fisher Investments Europe delegates portfolio management to its parent company, FI.