In January’s Macro Minutes video, Davis Hein explains how we use one particular aspect of sentiment – other professional’s forecasts – to create a sentiment bell curve which proves useful as we create our own equity market forecasts for 2021.
Long, flat periods followed by gains have been a hallmark of this bull, which should continue with volatility into 2020.
We expect the market to continue accelerating in this bull’s final third – albeit at a slower pace in the second half of the year – on the back of post-correction highs.
Fisher Investments (FI) utilizes a unique combination of top down and bottom up investment process where ESG risks and opportunities are regularly evaluated to determine potential impact on portfolio macro themes, country/sector allocation, and stock selection.
Equities have rebounded strongly from 2018’s lows, demonstrating a V-shaped recovery associated with prior corrections. We expect equities to accelerate through the bull market’s final third.
2018’s market decline was driven more by fear than fundamentals, a classic characteristic of corrections which typically feature strong V-shaped recoveries. We expect the bull market to resume selling pressure from the end of 2018 to ease and corporate and economic fundamentals remain solid.