Macro Minutes: Sentiment and the Market

Key Points

  • A sentiment bell curve helps us better understand what expectations are priced into the markets.
  • For 2021, the majority of analysts predict US markets will increase between 1% and 9%, with a median forecast for a 6.5% increase in the S&P 500.
  • Our research shows that markets often discount investor’s expectations and calendar year returns rarely align with professional forecasts.
Investing in financial markets involves a risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any invested capital will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance. The value of investments and the income from them will fluctuate with world financial markets and international currency exchange rates.