Inside, you will find a summary of market activity and our market outlook.
Global markets finished positive in Q2, while Emerging Markets (EM) ended Q2 slightly positive. Despite better than expected economic data and a rather impressive bounce off October 2022’s market low, this bull market features a classic “wall of worry”—a barrage of investor fears that tamps down sentiment as equities climb higher. Nearly nine months from equities’ low, today’s wide gulf between sentiment and reality reflects a classic early bull market feature. Ultimately, as we enter 2023’s back half, we expect investor fears to continue fading away as we believe the new bull market has ample room to grow and surprise to the upside.
A New Bull Market is Underway: Global equity markets’ significant rebound since last October’s low, coupled with better than expected economic data, lead us to believe we are in a new bull market cycle.
Ongoing Investor Fears Support New Bull: Excessively dour sentiment, driven by fears of inflation, globalrecession, narrow market breadth and a variety of other factors has significantly lowered investor expectations, creating space for the new bull market to continue.
Political Drivers are a Tailwind for Global Markets: The combination of the third year of a US president’s term, which has historically had the highest frequency of positive returns of the four-year cycle, and calmer global politics in 2023 provides a positive environment for the new bull market.